Thursday, May 22, 2008

$100 Oil?

The worrisome headlines and frightening articles about the present and future price of the second most precious liquid on the planet, oil, are coming fast and furious. Those with a contrarian bent love to see this sort of thing, as it usually portends a top of substantial portions. We'll just have to wait and see if the very alarming but not unexpected trend continues, or if the bull market in Texas Tea, the one being cheerlead to a fare thee well by such dubious Wall Street operators as Goldman Sachs, goes into a serious, albeit temporary, nosedive.

No one should be surprised if somewhere between here and $150 dollars a barrel, oil does decide to take a detour to, oh, say, $100 dollars a barrel. That's what markets do without fail, fool the overwhelming majority at just the point when they are most committed to a trade. One should remember that (fictitious government numbers aside) the nation is in a recession that is bound to get worse, and so there are ample reasons going forward for oil to take, at least, a breather. And should it come to pass that we do see a fast and furious twenty percent swoon in the price of oil, that would likely represent an excellent chance to top off one's tank, so to speak, because the discount probably won't last very long.

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