Monday, June 7, 2010

Peak Oil is Here

Funny how the timing of this announcement comes on the heels of what is shaping up to be far and away the biggest oil patch disaster of all time. Got solar panels or geo thermal?

12 comments:

Toby said...

I saw that too, Edwardo.

I've always had the slim hope that the devastation wreaked by BP's criminal negligence will prove the nail in the coffin of fossil fuels the renewable energy movement needs. However, I learned from a colleague on Saturday (I work in the energy sector) that the UK energy giants have agreed to not produce more than 35% of their energy from renewables. If true, this is an astonishing admission of moral bankruptcy and that renewables can indeed replace fossil fuels, and soon.

Wind looks very promising indeed, and in combination with solar and biomass could provide all of Germany's needs, according to the team from Karsruhe University who are currently designing a renewables infrastructure to do just that. The big problem, as the UK story tells us, is that there is very little profit in renewables for the energy giants. There's the rub.

Debra said...

I find the predictions of this agency confirm that... our beliefs determine our predictions. With or without reference to science, moreover.
In this domain, the science question is rather.. irrelevant, even.
One of the difficulties about long term predictions is that they necessitate... a perception of time which goes beyond a 10 minute sound bite attention span... AND a perception of continuity. Of oneself, one's culture, and the generations. We have made that perception of continuity very difficult for ourselves these days.
It is remarkably.. logical to predict that oil will run out. The big question that we could be asking is... WHY we seem not to want to believe that oil will run out, and why we seem driven to push this... LIMIT way way out in the future, to a point in time where we no longer feel concerned about it...
These are psychological observations.
Traditional economic theories have really done a good job pretending that psychology is not important, in a kind of cloud cuckoo land... UNSCIENTIFIC mindset that boggles the imagination of those of us who ENJOY observing ourselves, and other human animals.
Nothing new about what I'm saying here.
But... it's important to keep in mind how... collective mood swings affect our perception of our world.
It could induce a certain... CAUTION in us.
It rarely does, though.

Edwardo said...

Thanks for passing along that very interesting information, Toby.


Yes, Deb, there is such a thing as the self fulfilling prophecy, but then again, mankind has been dreaming of all sorts of things that haven't come to pass.


Just because you're paranoid doesn't mean they aren't out to get you.

In the meantime, concerning the BP oil disaster, Obama is posturing feverishly, wondering "whose ass to kick" His own would be a good place to start.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl2451

Debra said...

I'm a firm believer in change from the bottom up, Edwardo. And I keep working for it, in my microcosmic way.
I've stopped waiting for our leaders to take care of us.
And I've stopped worrying too.
Let's be pragmatic.
What good is worrying, anyway ?
It is a remarkably inefficient way of feeling connected to a problem, of working through it, as we say in my business. With some major disadvantages, as Thai would have said.
Modern angst. We are really good at it. Ho hum, as far as I'm concerned. On a general level. On the individual level, I encourage people as much as I can. The general level, and the individual are not the same though.
During my last spiritual crisis, I finally got to that point where I could say to myself that whatever happens, I have the means of thinking about it, and learning. I can use my neurons, for the time being, at least.
And if/when I can't use my neurons, maybe there will be some kind, generous soul who can HELP me if I need help.
And if not.. well, we'll see what happens right ?
No use losing sleep over it now. What a way to spoil your life, the worrying that has led to the insurance mindset for everything.
In the end, we are all going to die. It's not such a terrible thing, dying, as J.K. Rowling pointed out in children's books that adults SHOULD have taken a little more seriously. There are worse things than dying...
Besides, we don't even really know what it is, or what it means.

Edwardo said...

How old was Thai. I guessed he was in his late forties or early fifties.

Debra said...

I put him between 45 and 47. Too young. Way too young. That's a crock of shit, what I just said.
As I said elsewhere... the older you get, the more you realize that death is the ultimate injustice. Even if it is inevitable. i do, at any rate.
Normal, to use a word I hate. The older you get, the more you know what living means, because you've picked up a little experience in it, which means that you get... more and more attached to it, even if it means suffering sometimes. In my experience.
And THEN, well, everybody's death becomes an injustice, regardless of their age.
Look at it this way : EVERYBODY is unique. That means irreplaceable.
THAT, by the way is OUR religious tradition's FUNDAMENTAL precept. The one that the UNIQUE GOD is supposed to guarantee, Edwardo.
That's why when you take out the unique, irreplaceable God, lots of undesirable things start happening in the society. Not to God. WE don't know anything about God, and probably never will. No, not to God, to God's mirror image : MAN.
In my opinion.

Edwardo said...

I had him as late forties or perhaps early fifties based on various bits of information that he shared over the years. Boy do I feel sorry for his wife and kids.

Debra said...

43, according to his wife. She left a message on Toby's blog, if you want to check.
Contact the family, Edwardo, through the SuddenDebt link.
Do me a favor. WRITE something that is not a rant for Thai's family with your considerable writing skills.
It will do some good for YOUR soul too...

Edwardo said...

I'm going to give a try and see if I can come up with something worthy.

Edwardo said...

Deb, what do you think?


Appearing in debate for the first time on national television, Vice Presidential candidate James Stockdale's first words to a curious, and somewhat befuddled electorate were, "Who am I, and why am I here?" I feel obliged to offer the same greeting to those who read or hear my eulogy for Thai McGreivy, since, I only "knew" Thai within the relatively obscure and abstracted confines of the blogosphere. Even then, I know there are others who developed longer and deeper relationships with Thai than I, so it is with some reticence that I offer my thoughts.

Like a number of Thai's cyberspace acquaintances and friends, I first encountered Thai on the Sudden Debt web blog. There, we often exchanged observations about the economy, finance and other related matters. Later, Thai became a fairly frequent visitor to my own blog, and though, at first, his passion for fractals, and unerring tendency to apply that cornerstone of chaos theory to such seemingly disparate phenomenon as Sarah Palin and The European Banking crisis vexed me, I soon found conversing with Thai unerringly worthwhile and pleasurable, not just simply because he was clever, learned, and curious, but because he managed to convey a sincere sense of warmth and playfulness even as he leveled incisive criticism. As I'm sure many know, this is no mean feat, since, among other pitfalls, miscalculations of tone on internet fora are fiendishly easy to achieve, and the fallout from such misunderstandings too often lead to all manner of unpleasant blowups. But Thai's charm was such that no matter how decimated at his hands my argument may have been- and this was rare by the way- nary was a ripple seen or felt on the surface of our friendship. Well, I certainly hope Thai thought of me as a friend, because that is how I will always remember Thai.

Debra said...

GREAT !!
I love it.
(See, I bet you were dubious about writing outside of rant, huh ? Maybe not...)
I think that all our testimonies for Thai enable his family and friends to see him as a very multifaceted person, different with everybody to a certain extent, but... STILL Thai.
By the way, I've touched up my tribute to him, adding one or two things, if you feel like taking a look at it.
Cheers.

Edwardo said...

Thanks for looking it over. Are people sending their eulogies to his family? If so, where is the address?