Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Now It Gets Interesting.

A few facts. Make of them of what you will.

1.) Barack Obama's victory was a landslide.

2.) The Democrats have even firmer control of Congress.

What do they mean?

Here are a few ideas:

The landslide and subsequent bolstered majority mean that The Democrats will have massive power to legislate as they see fit. Notice I did not say something silly like: The Democrats will have massive power to effect change. The U.S. is bankrupt, and this will manifest in due course and be profoundly limiting to government's wherewithal. The main question going forward is how will the new President and his majority party respond to extreme duress. Be mindful of what a Democratic majority in Congress did not achieve before TSHTF. No change in U.S. military engagements, and no attempt to address any of the most pressing issues in the financial sphere.

The Democrats will have little or no leeway or excuse now for misrule. I expect the honeymoon for Obama to last no more than six months. That's right, one hundred and eighty days, and that might be generous by half. If Obama does not appear to be equal to events, (and I believe there will be many "events" as we head into '09) his Presidency is going to be even more miserable for him and us than I imagine it will be. I would like to be optimistic, but the party of Pelosi, the same party that gave us the unconscionable "No Banker Left Behind" Bill is almost certainly not up to the challenge. We must hope that in time others will be.

5 comments:

DED said...

Barack Obama's victory was a landslide.

Only in the Electoral College. The Popular Vote was 52% to 46%. Still a win, but far from a landslide, or a mandate.

The Democrats will have little or no leeway or excuse now for misrule.

"Misrule"?

I expect the honeymoon for Obama to last no more than six months.

I think that's generous. Clinton took heat from Day 1, though it might've been on the grounds that he won with less than 50% of the Popular Vote.

I would like to be optimistic, but the party of Pelosi, the same party that gave us the unconscionable "No Banker Left Behind" Bill is almost certainly not up to the challenge. We must hope that in time others will be.

I hear you. Hopefully, Pelosi and Reid will keep in mind that it is Obama, not them, who is the leader of the party and work with him rather than dictate to him.

Edwardo said...

Your point is well taken, but The Electoral College is what matters, Ded, not the popular vote. We may not like it, but that's the way it is. Misrule was perhaps not the best term to use, (Bush and The Republican leadership are guilty of misrule) but in any case I employ it to mean messing up governance either through incompetence, bad luck, venality, or some combination of the three.

I agree completely with you about Pelosi and Reid.
Obama must be acknowledged as the leader, and if he allows the Dem Congressional honchos to define his agenda, he and the Democrats might as well prepare for a short stay in the their present position. Vision, imagination, box, and guts are what will be required. Nothing less will do.

As for the honeymoon period, please note that I said six months was probably too generous by half. We'll see.

DED said...

The Electoral College is what matters, Ded, not the popular vote. We may not like it, but that's the way it is.

Yes, it is the EC that legally matters. However, one should take EC landslides with a grain of salt unless the Popular Vote is there to back it up (which in this case, it isn't). Recall Bush's inference that he earned political capital as a result of the 2004 election. Of course we know he in fact had none. Even Reagan's EC tsunami in 1984 translated to only 58.8% of the Popular Vote.

I'm not accusing you of irrational exuberance (I'm quite familiar with the well grounded skepticism you've expressed here in your blog), but there are some out there (certain Democrats) who will let this win go their heads.

Mike said...

By the way, Edwardo, I was perusing some of my old posts and comments: you nailed things way back when.

As far back as January/February, you predicted Obama over McCain and the recession/depression.

Nicely done.

Edwardo said...

Thanks, Mike. I'm glad you dropped by.

Ded, I'll try not to give those who already seem away with themselves over Obama's victory any more reason to maintain their apparent euphoria.