Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Bermuda attacks U.S.

That's about how much sense claims of U.S. naval vessels being attacked by Iran makes. Of course it could be true, but remember that in the size department the U.S. is GOLIATH, and the Iranians are itty bitty David. Oh yes, I know, we here in the U.S. are for apple pie, motherhood, and general goodness, and the Iranians are just a bunch of jihadist monsters, but think for a nanosecond about what the Iranians risk by provoking an attack against themselves versus what the U.S. might gain by launching an attack? The U.S. could come away with control of Iran's southern oil fields, while the Iranians get what, smoking ruins? Even a knee jerk jingo who has swallowed every bit of toxic Kool-Aid about the WOT and the war in Iraq ought to see that there is something wrong with the story as it is presently being told.


DED said...

I'm in the midst of reading Richard Clarke's "Against All Enemies." In it, there is some discussion about the Iran-Iraq War. IIRC, the tide was turning against Iraq with Iran about to press on towards Baghdad. However, with the accidental shooting down of that Iranian airliner by the US Navy, it was perceived that the US had abandoned its "neutral" status and entered the war on the side of Iraq. Fearing that the US would put an end to the Islamic Revolution, Iran agreed to end the war. Better to keep the Revolution alive than to win a war against Saddam.

If anything, this recent standoff was probably an attempt to antagonize the US ship long enough to provoke an attack. With our current low moral standing in the Middle East, and the world, it might have inflamed hostilities against us. With the US MSM preoccupied with primaries and Iraq low on the headlines, a "successful" incident might've stirred up anti-US forces. A morale booster exercise, if you will.

Edwardo said...

Fascinating stuff about the Iraq Iran War and the U.S. influence on the outcome.

The problem I have with your thesis is one of risk/reward. Is a bit of ramped up regional or even global opprobrium on behalf of Iran worth the damage the U.S. military could do to Iranian infrastructure? I have a hard time thinking it is worthwhile tradeoff.

DED said...

I forgot to mention the other possibility: that the US is using this as a starting point to justify attacking Iran. Something along the lines of the USS Maine which precipitated the Spanish American War.

But to reply, I think that, if my hypothesis were to hold up, unless the damage in such a naval encounter were to be even (which would require the Iranian boats to make successful suicide runs), and not be the expected lopsided encounter, there's no way the US could use it to justify an attack on Iran proper. A drumming by US naval forces would end at that. Everyone would see the lopsided outcome and there would be no way the US could retaliate. The Revolution would have a few more martyrs.

The Iranians have released the same video though with a different soundtrack.

Likely outcome: Lots of posturing but no actual conflict.

Edwardo said...

Absolutely, I think a "remember the Maine", or, if one prefers, Gulf of Tonkin incident is exactly right. I contend that the PTB are so dismissive of American's memory, understanding of history and ability to parse information, (and why shouldn't they be) that they would dust off something as transparently counterfeit as The Gulf of Tonkin incident and see if it would work again. And it just might.

DED said...

Now it's the result of a prankster. Link. Yahoo links vanish quickly so it might be gone before you read it.