Friday, September 25, 2009

Now That's What I Call Kicking The Can Down The Road!

Watch the video at the link (you may have to cut and paste it as there seems to be an issue with link connections on this blog) after reading this post and see if you come to the same conclusions as I have.

Here is the thesis in a very nutty shell. The United States, acting as the global engine of growth for the past half century, has indebted itself to the point of bankruptcy. The U.S. Government, in order to meet what are estimated to be 60 trillion dollars worth of obligations going forward, needs a controlled inflation averaging 4% over the next seventeen years. Why would that work? (Inflation is the ally of those in debt, and the U.S. is up to its eyes in debt) The aforesaid rate of inflation over seventeen years would, in effect, cut the purchasing power of the dollar in half, thereby enabling (or so the thesis goes) the U.S. Government to meet its, by then, only 30 trillion dollars of obligations. This assumes, of course, a certain modest level of growth in the U.S. economy during that time.

Interesting, and I say, good luck with this gambit since, markets, which are notoriously unstable, aren't likely to go along with the gradualist strategy of ushering the dollar to a further 50% decline in purchasing power over seventeen years. Ah, but apparently there is a contingency plan for this as well. Should the ultimate nemesis of fiat, that would be gold, get out of control on the upside, (bank on it, I say) the authorities will simply jack rates up to levels that will keep the rest of the world's worthless paper from getting more worthless versus gold. Of course, there is the slight problem of what that will do to our GDP, but perhaps "they" have some contingency plan for that as well. I will not hold my breath.

Now, for my money, literally and figuratively speaking, here's where the greatest madness of this "plan" lies: The IMF will replace the U.S. as the great global debtor, keeping the planet's economic engine humming along. And how will they do this? They'll do it the old fashioned way, just like Uncle Sam has, issuing their own fiat debt instruments. I guess the very idea of allowing debt to be honestly and effectively cleared from the system is impermissible. But what, pray tell, will happen when the IMF inevitably reaches the point of bankruptcy. I don't suppose it will matter, since, by then, every one that gets behind this unannounced scheme will likely be long gone from the scene.


Thai said...

YOur url link is dead.

And I do think there is some validity to the "jack the rates up" argument.

Remember, markets can be irrational a lot longer than you can be solvent. And if central banks jack rates up periodically enough to squeeze gold owners, hard asset holders and equity holders, enough of them may throw in the towel and purchase treasuries to a point where the fed can turn back on the printing presses with QE.

Remember, they do have control of the money supply so there is a lot they can do to fool you ;-)

Edwardo said...

Thanks for the heads up on the url link. It was to CNBC, and alas, now I can't find the video.

We'll see how much control of the money supply, or anything else, they have in a few years.

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