For those of you who don't know, PEI stands for the erstwhile Princeton Economics International. The one time money management outfit has nothing to do with Princeton University other than being located in the same New Jersey town that is home to the aforementioned august university. PEI was run by a brilliant but possibly shady economist by the name of Martin Armstrong. Armstrong has been in prison for years for refusing to cooperate with the courts around a case that is shrouded in mystery. Suffice it to say that there are many who, whatever their feelings about Mr. Armstrong's innocence or guilt may be, laud his brilliance on matters pertaining to finance and economics.
And so, with that bit of background in mind, I'd like to offer that while it may not be on your radar screen presently, Sunday the 19th marks, as per Mr. Armstrong' s work, another of his well known, and equally well regarded, economic confidence model turn dates. This one happens to be an interim turn date, and my view is that, especially given that, to my knowledge, Mr. Armstrong's turns were meant to be quite precise and not wide band turns, that it is likely marking another top in the economy. I do not view March 6th, when the stock market put in its lows, as some sort of proxy for the turn date, which is not a market turn model by definition. This is not to say that markets can't turn precisely on Mr. Armstrong's dates, they can, and I believe have, but I do not think that the stock market's lows in March coincided with the latest turn. Since we have been hearing little but tepidly happy talk about the economy for quite a while now, I'd just like to offer, on behalf of the latest turn date, that we buyers best beware!